Likud Divides on Netanyahu's Path to Victory as Nonprofits Push Turnout

Party officials in Likud are split on whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will win the vote scheduled for Tuesday, October 27. A source within the party described a divide between members who expect victory and those who fear a surge in turnout among voters opposed to the government.

The optimism rests on forecasts from Shlomo Filber, who leads internal polling for the party. The source noted that the results hinge entirely on Filber's data, stating, "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other." A survey released days before the election found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided.

The primary source of anxiety is a coordinated effort by organizations and nonprofits supporting the opposition. Party sources said these groups are spending large sums to mobilize voters without direct funding from political parties. The campaign includes social media ads, street signs, field events, transportation for Arab voters, and initiatives to bring Israelis living abroad home to cast ballots.

One Likud official labeled the activity "the nonprofits affair on steroids." The argument is that these groups provide a support network outside standard party financing rules. Sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts or proof that the activity violated the law.

Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party claimed the committee focused heavily on limiting campaign videos and public resource use while paying insufficient attention to the independent organizations' activities. In response, Likud is organizing a large ground operation for Election Day despite restrictions on gathering data from polling stations.

The party is also working to prevent right-wing votes from drifting to smaller slates. Talks to persuade Brig. Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, who leads the People of Israel party, to drop his candidacy failed. Rabbi Eli Sadan, who participated in the discussions, later issued a statement supporting Winter's continued run.

Negotiations with other right-wing lists are ongoing. Rabbi Abergel's Ahi party has already withdrawn from the race following talks with Likud. During those discussions, the parties explored legislation that would allow the Ahi party to name a deputy minister. Likud is also courting the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha.