Arab voters and U.S. midterms drive regional interest in Israel's election

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei declared on Monday that Tuesday's election in Israel makes no difference to Tehran. Speaking at a press conference, Baghaei criticized the vote as a competition between different gangs to commit more evil. He stated that the outcome is irrelevant in an environment where the ruling regime focuses on killing and genocide. Despite this official stance, Iranian state-affiliated media outlets like the Tasnim News Agency continue to track polls regarding Likud's chances.

The vote is taking place on Tuesday, October 27. Regional media across the Middle East are closely watching the contest, with many outlets focusing on the potential for a political stalemate. Qatar-based outlet Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported on fears that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could end up leading a caretaker government. The publication noted that the election follows three years of conflict in Palestinian territories. Journalist Beirut Hammoud, who wrote an analysis for the outlet, argued that international support for Israel is declining. She claimed that opposition politicians differ from Netanyahu only in their methods of managing the conflict.

Egyptian television channel Alghad reported on remarks made by Hadash politician Shadi Shweiri on Sunday. Shweiri described the situation for Arab citizens of Israel as a choice between the bad and the worse. He argued that the right to vote was secured through international pressure and a condition for Israel's acceptance into the United Nations in 1948. Shweiri accused the current government of racism and said Arab parties should support only a candidate willing to halt military operations and improve economic opportunities. He warned that the right to vote cannot be taken away, though the government can act outside the bounds of legitimacy.

The Lebanon-based outlet Al-Khanadeq published an analysis alleging that Netanyahu manipulated the political landscape by portraying the Arab vote as a liability. The article pointed to AI-generated campaign material showing Gadi Eisenkot alongside Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas. The author argued that this imagery targets the soft right, which might distance itself from Likud. The analysis suggested that the campaign aims to weaken the Arab vote and raise the cost of using it after the election. The outlet also cited efforts by the Central Elections Committee to disqualify Arab-majority parties and the deployment of 2,000 activists to deter Arab citizens from voting.

The Palestinian news site Al Quds, based in east Jerusalem, published a piece by Dr. Ahmed Youseff, a former senior adviser to Ismail Haniyeh. Youseff noted that the timing of the Israeli election coincides with the United States midterms. He argued that a victory for Eisenkot could reopen doors for international diplomacy and accountability for security failures. Youseff wrote that the hopes are for Netanyahu's defeat and for a reassessment of war policies. He stated that the American vote could curb the drive toward confrontation and empower Congress to hold the administration accountable.

Neither major political bloc in Israel is guaranteed a parliamentary majority. This uncertainty has led regional media to focus heavily on the performance of the Joint List and Mansour Abbas's Ra'am party. These parties are seen as key to determining the next government. The Joint List is an alliance of Hadash, Ta'Al, and Balad. Analysts in the region are watching to see if these groups can secure enough seats to form a coalition or force a caretaker government.

The election is set to take place on Tuesday. Campaign activities have intensified in the final days, with both Likud and opposition parties focusing on key swing districts. The deployment of activists and the release of new polling data continue to shape the narrative in regional media. The outcome will determine the direction of Israel's government and its stance on regional conflicts.

Regional observers are also watching the United States midterms, which take place on the same day. The combination of results from both elections could reshape the diplomatic landscape in the Middle East. Officials in the region are preparing for various scenarios, ranging from a strong Likud majority to a fragmented parliament. The next 48 hours will provide the first clear signals about the direction of Israeli politics.